国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250729

Report Overview - Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the progress of production cuts and shutdowns in Jiangxi mines [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to today's sentiment change [2]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to today's market information [2][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,620 yuan, down 2,740 yuan from T - 1; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan, down 190 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 297,904 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 349,991 lots [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than in 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped due to losses [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 73,120 yuan, down 7,400 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,005,395 lots. The spot - 2509 basis was 780 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,900 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; a national industrial and informatization meeting proposed to strengthen industry governance [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2509 closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan from T - 1; the PS2509 closing price was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1. The silicon factory profit in Xinjiang was - 1476 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon enterprise profit was - 17.9 yuan/kg [12]. - Macro and Industry News: The European solar market is expected to have a negative growth rate of - 1.4% in 2025 [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [14].