Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - On July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during intraday trading. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from a discount to a premium. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, while the price of lithium mica increased. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased. In terms of downstream demand, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, while the production schedule of lithium manganate decreased in June. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production schedule of energy storage batteries increased in June. Registered warehouse receipts increased, social inventory decreased, smelters reduced inventory, and downstream and other sectors increased inventory. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to continue holding out - of - the - money put options [1] Summary by Related Data Futures Market - On July 28, the closing prices of near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, continuous - three contract, and the active contract of lithium carbonate futures were 71700 yuan/ton, 73120 yuan/ton, 71420 yuan/ton, 71420 yuan/ton, and 73120 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared with July 25. The trading volume of the active contract was 1005395 hands (-198029), and the open interest was 378472 hands (-112616) [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73900 yuan/ton, showing an increase compared with previous periods. The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and lithium iron phosphate also showed different degrees of changes [1] Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate futures was 12276 tons (+280). The total social inventory of SMM lithium carbonate was 143170 tons, with smelters reducing inventory by 2654 tons and downstream and other sectors increasing inventory by 1544 tons and 1660 tons respectively [1] Spread - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 780 yuan/ton, showing an increase compared with previous periods. The spreads between different contracts also changed [1] Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 805 US dollars/ton (-5), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1165 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]
碳酸锂日评：情绪扩大扰动-20250729
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-29 02:15