Dongguan Securities·2025-07-29 02:22Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the dairy industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [2][5]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" is expected to positively impact dairy demand, as it provides annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [2][4]. - The subsidy policy aims for nationwide coverage, which is seen as a pioneering move that could stimulate local policies and enhance birth rates, thereby increasing demand for dairy products [2][4]. - The current low prices of raw milk and the gradual reduction of production capacity are anticipated to improve the supply-demand structure in the dairy sector [2][4]. Summary by Sections Childcare Subsidy Policy - The "Childcare Subsidy System" was announced on July 28, 2023, detailing the subsidy recipients and standards, with a national rollout planned [3][4]. - The policy allows families with children born before January 1, 2025, to receive subsidies calculated on a monthly basis until the child turns three [4]. Market Impact - The report suggests that the subsidy will serve as a model for local governments, potentially leading to increased financial support for families and stimulating birth rates [4]. - The expected increase in birth rates and improved population outlook is likely to drive up dairy product demand, benefiting the dairy industry [2][4]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage sector, highlighting the potential for growth in the maternal and infant industry chain due to the subsidy policy [2][4]. - Specific companies to watch include Yili Group (600887), New Dairy (002946), and Miaokelando (600882) as potential beneficiaries of the expected demand increase [2][4].