中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数飘绿，黑色系、新能源材料表现偏弱-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable. The improvement of US consumer demand depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The overall impact of upcoming US tariff policies may be lower than in April, but uncertainties remain [7]. - Domestic macro: As an important meeting approaches, the expectation of "anti - involution" policies has strengthened. Although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may focus on using existing policies, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [7]. - Asset views: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: Short - term weak recovery in commodity demand. US consumer purchase intentions are fluctuating at a low level, and price suppression persists. Improvement depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Follow the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. Tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties [7]. - Domestic: "Anti - involution" policy expectations have strengthened. Some industries have administrative production - cut expectations. Domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may use existing policies, with more incremental policies likely in the fourth quarter [7]. - Assets: Focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting policies. Policy - driven logic will be stronger in the second half of the year. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. The weak - dollar pattern will continue in the long - term. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is advisable [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Opportunities are spreading across sectors, but there is a lack of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock index options: Continue to hold bull spreads. Option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains under pressure. Key concerns are unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors are Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: The fundamentals are marginally improving, and cost support is strong. Key factors are the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Hot - metal production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. Key factors are overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: The futures price has risen significantly, and the price - increase progress has accelerated. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" expectation has risen, and the futures price has continuously hit the daily limit. Key factors are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Inventory pressure is acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Manganese silicon: Supply - demand contradictions are acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Middle and downstream sectors are replenishing stocks simultaneously, and upstream inventory has significantly decreased. Key factor is spot sales. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply - demand changes are limited, and sentiment supports the price. Key factor is soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. Key factors are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: The futures sentiment is fluctuating, and the price is adjusting at a high level. Key factors are unexpected ore复产 and unexpected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: The sentiment boost has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Macro sentiment still exists, and the zinc price is fluctuating at a high level. Key factors are macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lead: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and the lead price is fluctuating. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely in the short - term. Key factors are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policy risks. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is fluctuating. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is slightly upward - trending. Key factors are the expectation of Wa State's复产 and demand improvement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lithium carbonate: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: It is under pressure at a high level. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - LPG: Supply pressure continues, and chemical demand is acceptable. Key factor is the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Asphalt: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is under pressure. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is weak during the power - generation peak season. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The futures price follows the crude - oil trend and is weakening. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Methanol: It is boosted by coal in the short - term. Key factors are macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, and export pull is less than expected. Key factors are export policies and capacity elimination. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. Key factors are coal - price trends and the inflection point of visible inventory accumulation. The short - term outlook is a volatile decline [10]. - PX: Sentiment disturbances are increasing, and fundamental drivers are weakening. Key factors are overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance schedules. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PTA: Major plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. Key factors are the implementation of unexpected major plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Short - fiber: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and the processing fee is compressed. Key factors are textile exports and downstream purchasing rhythms. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Bottle - chip: During the production - cut season, cost pricing is more important than supply - demand. Key factor is the later - stage bottle - chip production start - up. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Propylene: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PP: It is boosted by "anti - involution" but supply - demand is still under pressure. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Plastic: It is boosted by the macro - environment but the fundamental support is weak. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PVC: The sentiment has cooled. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Caustic soda: Cost support is strong, and the downward space is limited. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has weakened. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Protein meal: Market sentiment has subsided, and prices are falling. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Corn/starch: The spot price is stable, waiting for new guidance. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Live pigs: Sentiment - based trading has cooled, and the futures price has declined from a high level. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Rubber: There are炒作 themes, and the rubber price has risen rapidly in the afternoon. Key factors are production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Pulp: It is mainly driven by the macro - environment. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US - dollar - quoted price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Cotton: The main - contract position has decreased, and the upward momentum has weakened. Key factors are demand and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Sugar: Import volume is expected to increase, limiting the price rebound. Key factor is abnormal weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10].