甲醇日评：焦煤回落甲醇补跌-20250729

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, but inland downstream profits are still poor with room for repair, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited actual impact on methanol production, as old - fashioned production devices account for a small proportion, and there is no expectation of a significant reduction in methanol supply. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build more inventories, and port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, which will suppress the East China spot price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the possible repeated adjustment of policy expectations. (View score: 0) [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2587 yuan/ton to 2492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton (-3.67%); MA05 decreased from 2504 yuan/ton to 2429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton (-3.00%); MA09 decreased from 2519 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton (-4.57%) [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): Prices in most regions decreased, such as in Taicang from 2487.50 yuan/ton to 2400 yuan/ton (-87.50 yuan/ton, -3.52%), in Shandong from 2340 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton, -0.64%), etc. Some regions like Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - Basis: Taicang spot - MA increased from -99.50 yuan/ton to -92 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 increased from 522.50 yuan/ton to 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50 yuan/ton (1.44%); Yulin Q6000 increased from 525 yuan/ton to 537.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.50 yuan/ton (2.38%) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged at 419.30 yuan/ton and - 540 yuan/ton respectively. Northwest MTO profit increased from 224.60 yuan/ton to 279.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.20 yuan/ton (24.58%); East China MTO profit increased from -838.57 yuan/ton to -621.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 217 yuan/ton (25.88%) [1] - Methanol downstream profit: Acetic acid profit increased from 248.21 yuan/ton to 305.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.48 yuan/ton (23.16%); MTBE profit decreased from 192.20 yuan/ton to 94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98.20 yuan/ton (-51.09%); Formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at -258 yuan/ton; Another product's profit decreased from 410 yuan/ton to 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (-12.20%) [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 weakened and declined, opening at 2521 yuan/ton, closing at 2404 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1172331 lots and an open interest of 616715, showing increased volume and decreased positions. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - Foreign information: In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 million - ton methanol plant is currently shut down, and multiple methanol plants are operating at normal loads. It is estimated that the loading speed at the port in mid - to - late July will be higher than that in early July [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated and declined, and closed at 2412 at night. On Monday, coking coal hit the daily limit down. The bullish sentiment brought by anti - involution may be adjusted, and methanol made up for the decline [1]