境外债专题：南向通扩容助力中资境外债布局

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bond Southbound Connect is about to expand, which may increase the demand for Chinese overseas bonds. The report focuses on the overview of Bond Southbound Connect, the historical performance of Chinese overseas bonds, and the future opportunities of Chinese overseas bonds [10][13] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Bond Southbound Connect Overview - Southbound Connect Expansion Policy Support: Multiple meetings and activities in 2025 have mentioned the expansion of Southbound Connect, including extending settlement time, supporting multi - currency bond settlement, expanding the scope of eligible domestic investors to non - bank institutions such as brokers, funds, insurance, and wealth management [10][11] - Southbound Connect Concept and Constraints: "Southbound Connect" allows domestic investors to invest in bonds traded in the Hong Kong bond market through the interconnection of relevant basic service institutions between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. The relevant funds can only be used for bond investment, and illegal currency arbitrage is prohibited. The annual quota is 500 billion yuan equivalent, and the daily quota is 20 billion yuan equivalent [1][24][25] - Southbound Connect Full - Process Mechanism: The trading method is Request for Quote (RFQ). It adopts a nominal holder system for custody and full - amount Delivery versus Payment (DVP) for settlement [1][28][33] 2. Review of Chinese Overseas Bonds in 2025H1: Narrowing Spreads and Relatively Attractive Returns - Primary Market Changes: - Chinese US Dollar Bonds: The primary issuance of Chinese US dollar bonds has improved, with the issuance scale from January to June 2025 reaching 89.4 billion US dollars, a 12% year - on - year increase. The issuance interest rate has fluctuated downward [2][45] - Dim Sum Bonds: The primary issuance of Dim Sum bonds has slightly contracted, with a 9% year - on - year decrease in the issuance scale from January to June 2025. The issuance interest rates have shown differentiation [2][53] - Secondary Market Performance: - Chinese US Dollar Bonds: The index has steadily risen, and the credit spreads have continued to repair. As of June 30, 2025, the overall return rate of Chinese US dollar bonds this year was 4.23%, better than the performance of the China Bond Index [3][61] - Dim Sum Bonds: Priced based on Chinese treasury bonds, they follow the narrowing of on - shore credit spreads. With the inflow of on - shore funds and the reduction of future financing costs, the spreads in the offshore market may gradually narrow [3][84] 3. Outlook for Chinese Overseas Bonds in 2025H2: Southbound Connect Expansion Facilitates Layout - Overview of the Hong Kong Bond Market: As of the end of 2024, the outstanding scales of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds were 195.5 billion, 173.2 billion, and 565.6 billion US dollars respectively. The bonds托管 by CMU are only a small part of the Hong Kong bond market [4][91] - Investment Strategy for Chinese US Dollar Bonds: Driven by the on - shore and offshore spread gap and the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, urban investment US dollar bonds are expected to continue their good performance, and real estate US dollar bonds will also benefit from relevant policies. The primary supply of investment - grade financial and non - financial sectors is relatively sufficient, and the valuations are still attractive [4][112] - Investment Strategy for Dim Sum Bonds: Considering the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion and the cost of hedging, Dim Sum bonds are more cost - effective than Chinese US dollar bonds. With the expected influx of Southbound funds, there is a large narrowing space for Dim Sum bond spreads, so they have high allocation value [4]