生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the pig prices will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen, providing some support to pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 28, the registered pig futures warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term decline of spot prices is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 881 lots today, with a position of about 61,400 lots. The highest price was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or maintain a stable weight, pig prices may show a weakening trend. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment on commodities [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 28, compared with July 25, the futures prices of all contracts decreased. The 01 contract decreased by 120 yuan/ton (- 0.82%), the 03 contract decreased by 185 yuan/ton (- 1.34%), the 05 contract decreased by 155 yuan/ton (- 1.09%), the 07 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%), the 09 contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton (- 1.81%), and the 11 contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on national pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [11][12].