铅锌日评：沪铅区间整理，沪锌区间偏弱-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and expectations of peak - season consumption support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For zinc, the market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory continues to accumulate. With a weak fundamental situation and the fading of the "anti - involution" sentiment, short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly sorted [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Performance: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 0.24% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 55.09%, and the open interest decreased by 3.79%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 0.15%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.09% [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise and difficult to fall. A primary lead smelter had a small decline in production due to equipment failure last week. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Some smelters reduced or stopped production due to insufficient raw materials or cost inversion. As the inventory of electrolytic lead factories decreased, the market's fear of high prices increased, and the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improved, and the start - up of secondary lead production gradually recovered. In terms of demand, as July is coming to an end, the market still expects peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases for inventory checks at the end of the month [1]. - Industry News: Guizhou Lukong, a wholly - owned subsidiary of Shandong Zihuan, can produce 200,000 tons of lead ingots, 38,000 tons of recycled plastics, and 50,000 tons of sulfuric acid annually, with an expected annual output value of about 4 billion yuan. On July 27, 2025, its core smelting system was successfully put into operation, marking the official implementation of large - scale production of multi - metal recovery and comprehensive utilization of lead - containing resources [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Performance: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.53% compared to the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures closed down 1.05% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 26.97%, and the open interest decreased by 3.69%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 0.83%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.22% [1]. - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,800 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased to 76.25 US dollars/dry ton. With the continuous loosening of raw materials, the zinc concentrate processing fee in August is expected to continue to rise, weakening the cost support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious upward trend. In terms of demand, the continuous strengthening of zinc prices during the week significantly reduced downstream off - season purchases [1]. - Industry News: In May 2025, Bolivia's zinc concentrate production was 39,900 metric tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. From January to May, the total zinc concentrate production in Bolivia was 210,300 metric tons, basically the same as the previous year. As of July 28, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 103,700 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons compared to July 21 and an increase of 5,400 tons compared to July 24 [1].