商品期货早班车-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; due to the strong US economy and industrial silver's long - term downward trend, it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies [1]. - For aluminum, although industry policies are favorable, the price increase is limited in the off - season, and the price may fluctuate, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - Alumina's operating capacity is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For zinc, due to supply pressure and weak consumption in the off - season, it is recommended to short on rallies [2][3]. - For lead, it is recommended to operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. - For industrial silicon, the market may turn to wide - range fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 65,000 - 80,000, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [3]. - For polysilicon, the market may fluctuate widely between 48,000 - 53,000, and it is advisable to wait and see [3][4]. - For steel products, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. - For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. - For coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and exit long positions [4]. - For soybean meal, the US soybeans are in a volatile range, and it is necessary to focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks,产区 weather, and tariff policies [5]. - For corn, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For sugar, it is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - For cotton, it is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy between 13,800 - 14,400 [6]. - For logs, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - For palm oil, it is short - term strong, and it is recommended to allocate more in the sector, focusing on产区 production and biodiesel policies [6]. - For eggs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - For live pigs, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [7]. - For LLDPE, it may fluctuate in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [8]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For PTA, it is recommended to take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - For glass, it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For PP, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [9]. - For MEG, it is recommended to short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. - For crude oil, due to the uncertainty of US sanctions on Russia, it is advisable to wait and see [9][10]. - For styrene, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term and is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term [10]. - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling call options [10]. 3. Summaries According to Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: On Tuesday, precious metal prices weakened, with both gold and silver falling. The US dollar index rose by more than 1% during the session [1]. - Fundamentals: The EU - US trade agreement is seen as beneficial to the US, the US Treasury plans to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in the third quarter, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak. Gold ETFs in China had outflows, and inventories of gold and silver in various exchanges increased [1]. - Trading Strategies: Long on gold and short - sell on rallies for precious metals [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract decreased by 0.70% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, but the off - season leads to a slight decline in the operating rate of aluminum products [2]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see due to limited price increase space [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 5.40% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see as the price may fluctuate weakly [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the zinc 2508 contract decreased by 1.01% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [2][3]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure persists, and consumption is weak in the off - season, with an increasing risk of a short squeeze [3]. - Trading Strategies: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the social inventory increased [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is tight in some areas, and consumption has low - level resilience, with tightened spot liquidity [3]. - Trading Strategies: Operate within a range and go short - term long on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main contract closed at the limit - down price, with a decrease in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased last week, and demand was mixed [3]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract decreased by 7.98%, with capital outflows [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased slightly, demand improved marginally, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - Trading Strategies: Participate cautiously as the price may fluctuate widely [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main contract decreased, with a decrease in positions and stable warehouse receipts [3][4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand was weak [3][4]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see as the market may fluctuate widely [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - Market Performance: The main contract of rebar fluctuated sideways [4]. - Fundamentals: Building material inventory increased slightly, and the overall supply - demand of steel products was balanced with structural differentiation [4]. - Trading Strategies: Take profits on long positions and short the RB2601 contract for aggressive investors [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, demand was stable, and the supply - demand was neutral to strong [4]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see and take profits on long positions [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract of coking coal fell to the limit and continued to decline at night [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures was over - valued [4]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see and exit long positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans fell [5]. - Fundamentals: Supply was loose both in the near - term and long - term, and demand was uncertain [5]. - Trading Strategies: Focus on Sino - US economic and trade talks, and follow the international cost in the medium - term [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The 2509 contract was weak, and the spot price fluctuated [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply was tight, but substitutes and imports affected the price [6]. - Trading Strategies: The futures price may fluctuate weakly [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: International supply pressure and domestic macro - sentiment affected the price [6]. - Trading Strategies: Short on rallies in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures were weak, and domestic cotton futures were strong [6]. - Fundamentals: International supply and demand and domestic downstream conditions were mixed [6]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see and trade within a range [6]. Logs - Market Performance: The 09 contract rose slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: Market activity increased, but the price was mainly affected by macro - factors [6]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [6]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil fell [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased seasonally, and demand decreased [6]. - Trading Strategies: Strong in the short - term, allocate more in the sector [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [6][7]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased, and demand may increase seasonally, but cold - storage eggs limited the increase [6][7]. - Trading Strategies: The futures price may fluctuate [6][7]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The 2509 contract and the spot price fell [7]. - Fundamentals: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply pressure increased [7]. - Trading Strategies: The futures price may fluctuate and adjust [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly in the off - season [8]. - Trading Strategies: Fluctuate in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [8]. PVC - Market Performance: The V09 contract fell by 1.4% [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply will increase, and inventory accumulated [8]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [8]. PTA - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices were at certain levels, and the spot basis was - 7 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure was high, and polyester demand was weak [8]. - Trading Strategies: Take profits on PX and short on rallies for PTA [8]. Rubber - Market Performance: The main contract fell by 2.52% [9]. - Fundamentals: Inventory increased, and downstream factories replenished stocks [9]. - Trading Strategies: Fluctuate in a range, wait and see [9]. Glass - Market Performance: The fg09 contract fell by 5% [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase, inventory decreased, and demand improved [9]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on dips [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated [9]. - Trading Strategies: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [9]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price and basis were at certain levels [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, and demand was weak [9]. - Trading Strategies: Short when the supply - demand is weak [9]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The price rose sharply due to supply risks [9][10]. - Fundamentals: OPEC's decision was pending, and US demand was mixed [9][10]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see due to sanction uncertainties [9][10]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase, and demand was under pressure [10]. - Trading Strategies: Fluctuate weakly in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The 09 contract fell by 4% [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased slightly, inventory was redistributed, and demand was uncertain [10]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see or short - sell call options [10].