渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.29）-20250729

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first half of 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 4.3% in June [2][3] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by increased working days and the delayed effect of tariff suspension on exports [3][4] - The operating income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while the profit margin decreased to 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on enterprise profits [3][4] Fiscal Data Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% to 141,271 billion yuan [6][9] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4% to 19,442 billion yuan, but expenditure surged by 30% to 46,273 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal spending [6][10] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, reflecting a robust fiscal support environment [10] Fund Research - All major indices in the equity market were raised, with public fund scale surpassing 34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [12][14] - The week saw a net inflow of 19.22 billion yuan into the ETF market, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs, while stock ETFs experienced net outflows [14][15] - The issuance of new funds decreased, with 23 new funds launched, raising 276.61 billion yuan, reflecting a slight contraction in market activity [14][15] Industry Research - The paper industry is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" sentiments, with a 5.07% increase in the paper sector from July 1 to 25, 2025 [16][20] - The third batch of national subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to support the consumption of old goods, which is expected to stabilize furniture product sales [20] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind, indicating sector-specific performance variations [16][20]