新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-29）-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Adjustment [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Pullback after Reaching Highs [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: Pullback after Reaching Highs [2] - Glass: Pullback after Reaching Highs [2] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - 2 - Year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5 - Year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10 - Year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Sideways [4] - Silver: High - level Sideways [4] - Pulp: Pullback [6] - Logs: Sideways [6] - Soybean Oil: Sideways with Pullback [6] - Palm Oil: Sideways with Pullback [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Sideways with Pullback [6] - Soybean Meal: Sideways and Weakening [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Sideways and Weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways and Weakening [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways and Weakening [6] - Live Pigs: Sideways and Weakening [8] - Rubber: Sideways [11] - PX: Wait - and - See [11] - PTA: Wait - and - See [11] - MEG: Wait - and - See [11] - PR: Wait - and - See [11] - PF: Wait - and - See [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti - involution + stable growth", and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a phased pullback after the short - term sentiment is released [2][6][11] - The macro environment is neutral to strong, and policy expectations and demand performance during the off - season should be closely monitored [2] - The fundamentals of some commodities are strong, but short - term over - increases may lead to price adjustments [2] - The market's upward momentum is weakening, and risk appetite should be reduced [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on its price [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, and supply remains abundant. Port arrivals may bottom out and rebound. Although steel production is in the off - season, iron ore fundamentals are still acceptable in the short term. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: The "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, but short - term over - increases have led to regulatory adjustments. The fundamentals are strong, but attention should be paid to the trends of iron production and coal - coke supply [2] - Rebar and Coiled Steel: In the off - season, demand has declined, but supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. The overall demand is expected to show a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Short - term steel industry policies may support prices [2] - Glass: Factory inventories are decreasing, but supply remains low. Market sentiment has improved, but real demand has not fully recovered. Long - term demand is restricted by the real estate industry [2] Financial Products - Stock Index Futures/Options: Stock index performance varies, and different sectors have different capital flows. The industry is deploying key tasks for the second half of the year, and the market's upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [2][4] - Treasury Bonds: Yields are fluctuating, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is showing a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - Precious Metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical conflicts affect its price. In the short term, gold is expected to trade sideways [4] Light Industry Products - Pulp: Spot prices are stable, but cost support has weakened. The paper industry is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Pulp prices are expected to pull back [6] - Logs: Port shipments are increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Supply pressure is not significant, and prices are expected to trade sideways [6] Oils and Fats - Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil: Production and inventory situations vary. Supply is abundant, and prices may pull back after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather in the US soybean - growing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [6] - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: Supply pressure is significant, and demand is weak. However, weather conditions in the US soybean - growing areas may provide some support for prices [6] - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean No. 1: Supply is abundant, and prices are expected to trade sideways and weaken. Attention should be paid to factors such as US soybean weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and slaughter enterprise开工率 may continue to decline. Pig prices are expected to decline week - on - week [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is expected to be tight due to weather and geopolitical factors. Demand from the tire industry is showing a differentiated trend, and inventory is decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to remain firm [11] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: The supply - demand patterns vary, and prices are mainly affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [11]