沪铅下方空间有限

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that while the peak season demand for lead is yet to materialize, due to limited supply growth and cost - side support, the lead market is likely to be weak with limited downside potential. Attention should be paid to whether the peak season demand will be realized later [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees: In June 2025, China's lead ore imports reached 118,026 tons, a 13.54% month - on - month increase, hitting a five - year high. The low levels of domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 dollars/dry ton, down 15 dollars month - on - month. The domestic weekly lead ore processing fee was 400 - 600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 dollars/dry ton, remaining flat week - on - week [2]. - Supply: In June, the national electrolytic lead output was 328,600 tons, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease but a 16.23% year - on - year increase. In July, after maintenance, production recovered, but the tightness of the ore end limited the production increase. The output of secondary lead in June was 228,800 tons, a 2.39% month - on - month increase but a 13.57% year - on - year decrease. The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces last week decreased by 1.1% to 65.8%. The operating rate of secondary lead increased by 2.4% to 37.9% last week. The import window of lead ingots remained closed [3]. - Consumption: The weekly operating rate of SMM lead - acid batteries remained relatively stable. The anti - dumping investigation by the Middle East on China and Indonesia will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese or Chinese - funded lead - acid battery enterprises, which may drag down the battery export outlook. After the decline in lead prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and refineries' inventory decreased rapidly. However, the improvement in downstream battery consumption was limited, and dealers mainly digested inventory, waiting for peak season demand [4]. - Spot and Inventory: As of the week ending July 18, the basis of domestic lead spot to the active month rebounded slightly to near par. The LME lead spot remained deeply in contango, with a contango of 24.20 dollars last weekend. As of the week ending July 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 19,025 tons to 268,400 tons, reaching a five - year high; the SHFE lead weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons to 62,300 tons. As of July 21, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 65,800 tons, at a relatively high level in the past three years [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The LME lead inventory increased significantly at a high level last week and remained at a five - year high, with the spot in deep contango, indicating a loose supply - demand situation overseas. Although the lead concentrate imports in June increased to a multi - year high, the weekly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ore remained low, and the supply of lead concentrate remained tight. With the end of production cuts by smelters in Central China, the supply of primary lead may increase slightly later. The willingness to resume production of secondary lead is strong, but the loss situation has not improved, and raw material inventory remains low, so the expected increase in secondary lead is limited. - Currently, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery market remains stable. After the decline in lead prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and refineries' inventory decreased rapidly. However, the improvement in downstream battery consumption is limited, dealers are mainly digesting inventory, social inventory is accumulating, and peak season demand is yet to come [6].