申银万国期货早间策略-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is favorable for reducing stock market volatility. It believes that the policy signal is clear, and the valuation has started to repair in advance, but the fundamentals have not been fully verified. In the medium - to long - term, A - shares have a high investment value. Among them, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, have the potential for higher returns due to their high growth, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from - 0.40% to - 0.50%. The trading volume of IF next - month contracts was 53,170.00, and the open interest of IF current - month contracts decreased by 4,718.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also declined, with drops from - 0.55% to - 0.61%. The trading volume of IH next - month contracts was 30,341.00, and the open interest of IH current - month contracts decreased by 599.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts mostly decreased, with falls from - 0.02% to - 0.06%. The trading volume of IC next - month contracts was 39,078.00, and the open interest of IC current - month contracts decreased by 2,979.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with rises from 0.01% to 0.03%. The trading volume of IM next - month contracts was 98,231.00, and the open interest of IM current - month contracts decreased by 3,636.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF next - month minus IF current - month was - 6.80, IH next - month minus IH current - month was 1.20, IC next - month minus IC current - month was - 45.20, and IM next - month minus IM current - month was - 62.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Indices Performance: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.53%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.08%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed varying degrees of rise and fall, with the information technology industry rising by 1.43% and the optional consumption industry falling by 1.48% [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - IF Contracts Basis: The basis of IF current - month minus CSI 300 was - 4.36, and the basis of IF next - month minus CSI 300 was - 11.16 [1] - IH Contracts Basis: The basis of IH current - month minus SSE 50 was 0.09, and the basis of IH next - month minus SSE 50 was 1.29 [1] - IC Contracts Basis: The basis of IC current - month minus CSI 500 was - 38.39, and the basis of IC next - month minus CSI 500 was - 83.59 [1] - IM Contracts Basis: The basis of IM current - month minus CSI 1000 was - 38.41, and the basis of IM next - month minus CSI 1000 was - 100.81 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - Domestic Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] - Overseas Indices: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the DAX index increased by 0.40%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - Industrial Profits: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared to May. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year - on - year, while the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% [2] - US - EU Trade Agreement: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs [2] - US Business Delegation to China: A high - level US business delegation is about to visit China, organized by the US - China Business Council [2] - Provincial Economic Data: The economic performance of the six central provinces is remarkable, with the GDP growth rates of most provinces exceeding the national average of 5.3% [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Artificial Intelligence: The SASAC attaches great importance to the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence industry. The Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory released ten scientific and intelligent innovation achievements, and Pudong will create over 30 application scenarios and attract 1,000 AI enterprises in the next three years, with the core output value of AI exceeding 200 billion yuan [2] - Photovoltaic Industry: The photovoltaic industry should limit production, stabilize prices, and ensure profits, and learn from the successful experiences of cement integration and the high - profit cycle of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Power Bank Industry: The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association held a symposium on the compliance and healthy development of the power bank industry in Shenzhen, reaching important consensus on improving product quality [2]