国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding price trends and trading suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to oscillate downward [2][6] - Silver: Expected to break through and rise [2][6] - Trend Intensity: Gold -1, Silver 0 [11] Base Metals - Copper: The rising US dollar exerts pressure on prices [13] - Zinc: Expected to oscillate weakly [16] - Lead: Lacks clear driving force, prices oscillate [19] - Tin: Expected to oscillate within a range [22] - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate at a high level [26] - Alumina: Market sentiment declines [26] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [26] - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit the elasticity [29] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [29] - Trend Intensity: Copper 0, Zinc -1, Lead 0, Tin -1, Aluminum 0, Alumina 0, Cast Aluminum Alloy 0, Nickel 0, Stainless Steel 0 [15][18][20] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Expected to oscillate widely, pay attention to the progress of production cuts in Jiangxi mines [34] - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to today's sentiment changes [38] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to today's market information [39] - Iron Ore: Supported by macroeconomic expectations, expected to oscillate strongly [42] - Rebar: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [45] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [46] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - Manganese Silicide: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - Coke: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [53] - Coking Coal: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [54] - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovers, expected to oscillate and stabilize [57] - P - Xylene: The unilateral trend is weak [2] - PTA: Weak, conduct basis reverse arbitrage and calendar spread positive arbitrage [2] - MEG: The trend turns weak, conduct calendar spread reverse arbitrage [2] - Rubber: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - Synthetic Rubber: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - Asphalt: Crude oil is strong, cracking continues to weaken [2] - LLDPE: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - PP: Spot prices decline, trading is light [2] - Caustic Soda: Pay attention to delivery pressure [2] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - Glass: The price of raw sheets is stable [2] - Methanol: Under short - term pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - Urea: Weakly operates in the short term [2] - Styrene: Compress profit margins [2] - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market [5] - PVC: Weak in the short term [5] - Fuel Oil: Rebounds slightly at night, may turn strong in the short term [5] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Rises in the short term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market is temporarily stable [5] - Trend Intensity: Carbonate Lithium 0, Industrial Silicon 0, Polysilicon 1, Iron Ore 0, Rebar 0, Hot - Rolled Coil 0, Silicon Ferrosilicon 0, Manganese Silicide 0, Coke 0, Coking Coal 0, Steam Coal 0 [36][41][42] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The short - term rise has reached its limit, beware of a decline in sentiment [5] - Soybean Oil: Expected to oscillate within a range, pay attention to China - US trade progress [5] - Soybean Meal: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - Soybean No.1: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - Sugar: Ranges and consolidates [5] - Cotton: High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support futures prices [5] - Eggs: Spot prices turn weak [5] - Hogs: Strong in the real - world situation but weak in expectations, conduct reverse arbitrage [5] - Trend Intensity: Not provided for agricultural products Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): Hold 10 short positions and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [5] - Short - Fiber: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - Bottle Chip: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - Offset Printing Paper: Oscillates at a low level, lacks upward momentum [5] - Pure Benzene: Expected to oscillate strongly [5] - Log: Oscillates repeatedly [60] - Trend Intensity: Not provided for these commodities