Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 29, 2025, futures main contract market trends. Index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly; gold futures will likely fluctuate weakly; some industrial product futures such as copper, aluminum, and silver will fluctuate and consolidate; some futures like alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil will likely fluctuate strongly; while futures of coke, glass, and soda ash will probably fluctuate weakly; crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly [2][3][4][5]. - The report also provides macro - news, commodity futures information, and analyzes the July 28, 2025, market trends of various futures contracts, including index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7][11][13]. Summary by Category Macro - news - National leaders made important instructions on flood prevention and disaster relief work [7]. - Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, aiming to implement the consensus reached in previous meetings [7]. - The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025 [8]. - Changhe Group in Hong Kong is considering inviting a Chinese strategic investor to participate in the Panama Canal port business transaction, and the Chinese government will regulate it in accordance with the law [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the integration of urban and rural development and protecting the rights of rural migrants [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including promoting consumer goods and emerging industries [9]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation aimed to improve market supervision systems and enhance safety supervision capabilities [9]. - Nine departments jointly issued a plan to rectify heavy - metal environmental safety hazards from 2025 - 2030 [9]. - The State Taxation Administration reported on the investigation of tax evasion cases by online anchors and cases of fraudulent tax incentives [9]. - Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement [10]. - US President Trump mentioned potential tariffs on imports and his stance on Russia - Ukraine relations [10]. - The US Treasury increased the federal borrowing forecast for the quarter [10]. - Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement is determined, details remain to be discussed [10]. - The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs [10]. - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft with a record 126.7 billion euro investment [11]. Commodity Futures Information - Domestic industrial product futures saw a significant correction, with six main contracts including coke, glass, and soda ash hitting the daily limit down, and over 10 varieties such as alumina and polysilicon falling more than 3%. At night, the black - metal sector generally declined [11]. - The US - EU agreement and OPEC + production increase boosted oil prices, with US crude and Brent crude rising 2.79% and 2.87% respectively [11]. - International precious - metal futures generally closed lower on July 28, affected by the Thailand - Cambodia cease - fire agreement [12]. - Most London base metals closed lower on July 28, influenced by the Fed's policy and Sino - US trade uncertainties [12]. - Oil traders expect OPEC + to approve a significant production increase this weekend [12]. - Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of crude oil for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month [12]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated on July 28, and the US dollar index rose [12][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures showed different trends, with some rising slightly and some falling slightly. It is expected that on July 29, index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, and in July 2025, they will likely fluctuate strongly [13][14][15][18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. It is expected that on July 29, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly [38][40]. Gold Futures - On July 28, the main contract of gold futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [43]. Silver Futures - On July 28, the main contract of silver futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [49][50]. Copper Futures - On July 28, the main contract of copper futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [53]. Aluminum Futures - On July 28, the main contract of aluminum futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of aluminum futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [58]. Alumina Futures - On July 28, the main contract of alumina futures fell significantly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of alumina futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [62]. Industrial Silicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of industrial silicon futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly and widely [67][68]. Polysilicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of polysilicon futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate widely [68]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [70]. Rebar Futures - On July 28, the main contract of rebar futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of rebar futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [73]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [78]. Iron Ore Futures - On July 28, the main contract of iron ore futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of iron ore futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [80]. Coke Futures - On July 28, the main contract of coke futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [85][86]. Glass Futures - On July 28, the main contract of glass futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [87]. Soda Ash Futures - On July 28, the main contract of soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [90]. Crude Oil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of crude oil futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly and widely, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [92]. PTA Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PTA futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [96]. PVC Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PVC futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [98]. Methanol Futures - On July 28, the main contract of methanol futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [100].
股指期货将震荡整理，碳酸锂、焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏弱黄金期货将偏弱震荡，原油期货将震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-29 03:13