镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪回落，波动加大-20250729

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250729: "Anti-Involution" Sentiment Declines, Volatility Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On July 28, the main nickel contract fluctuated downward. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, but the macro - atmosphere dominates with large sentiment changes. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Short - term high - selling and short - positions are recommended, waiting for the "anti - involution" sentiment to subside (Viewpoint Score: -1) [2] - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The current macro - sentiment has a large influence. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see (Viewpoint Score: 0) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Volume - Shanghai nickel futures: On July 28, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to previous days. The trading volume of the active contract was 297,904 hands (+132,194), and the open interest was 96,124 hands (-2,883) [2] - LME nickel: On July 28, the closing prices of the 3 - month nickel in the electronic and physical trading sessions decreased. The trading volume was 7,318 hands (-3,337) [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat, nickel ore arrivals increased last week, and port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production decreased in June, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits expanded [2] - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel mills' production plans decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 349,991 hands (+149,518), and the open interest was 112,413 hands (-12,340). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 638,500 tons (-17,800) [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production decreased in June [2] - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2] Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable [2]