对二甲苯：单边趋势偏弱，PTA：偏弱，基差反套，月差正套，MEG：趋势转弱，月差反套

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is weakening, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - PTA: Weak, with basis reverse arbitrage and monthly spread positive arbitrage opportunities, rated as "Weak" [1][8] - MEG: Trend turns weak, with monthly spread reverse arbitrage, rated as "Weak" [1][8] Core Viewpoints - PX's price decline is a correction after the sharp rise on July 25, and future Asian supply will gradually increase; PTA's spot supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to basis and monthly spread arbitrage; MEG is short - term bearish due to supply pressure and other factors [3][9][10] Market Overview PX - End - of - day naphtha price declined, and today's PX price dropped significantly. Two September Asian spot deals were at 855 and 854, and one October deal was at 848. The decline is seen as a correction after the July 25 surge, driven by China's discussion on curbing industrial over - capacity. Crude oil's afternoon weakness added downward pressure, but its potential rebound may support PX [3][5] PTA - PTA spot price fell to 4800 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 7 [5] MEG - East China main port MEG inventory is about 52.1 tons, down 1.2 tons from the previous period. Different ports have different inventory changes [6] Polyester - A 300,000 - ton polyester new device in Anhui will be put into production tomorrow. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales are light, with an average sales rate of less than 30% as of 3:30 pm. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales are average, with an average sales rate of 48% as of 3:00 pm [6][7] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG trend intensities are all - 1, indicating a weak trend [8] Views and Suggestions PX - Unilateral trend turns weak, hedge on rallies. Go long PX and short PTA01 contract, short PXN on rallies. China's PX开工率 is 79.9% (1.2%), and Asia's is 72.9% (- 0.7%). Future Asian supply will gradually increase [9] PTA - Unilateral turns weak, industries can hedge on rallies. Pay attention to going long PX and short PTA on 01 contract. Basis is in reverse arbitrage, and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. PTA装置开工率 remains at 79.7%. Pay attention to high - valuation PTA processing fee compression positions [9][10] MEG - Short - term bearish. Pay attention to supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L arbitrage. Import volume will change in different months, and domestic supply is relatively loose [10][11]