房地产行业第30周周报：本周新房二手房成交同比降幅收窄，成都分阶段取消限售-20250729

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [4]. Core Insights - Recent policies in Chengdu and Jinan aim to stimulate the housing market by easing restrictions on property sales and lowering down payment ratios for second homes [3]. - New home transaction volume has shown signs of recovery, with a month-on-month increase in transaction area and a narrowing year-on-year decline [17][18]. - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic bond issuance by real estate companies, indicating improved market confidence [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities increased by 6.9% month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 9.6% [18]. - Second-hand home transaction area decreased by 2.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 11.1% [18]. - New home inventory area increased by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 16.0% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.7 months [44]. 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities increased by 9.8% month-on-month but decreased by 3.0% year-on-year [15]. - The total land transaction price fell by 7.8% month-on-month and 25.9% year-on-year, with an average floor price of 1598.3 yuan per square meter [15]. 3. Policy Overview - Chengdu's new policy allows for phased cancellation of housing sales restrictions starting July 21, 2025, and Jinan has introduced favorable policies for affordable housing [3]. 4. Sector Performance Review - The real estate sector's absolute return was 4.1%, up by 6.2 percentage points from the previous week, while relative return compared to the CSI 300 index was 2.4%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points [15]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: established firms in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the second-hand market recovery [15].