甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The recent methanol price fluctuations are mainly driven by macro factors rather than industry fundamentals, with intensified speculative sentiment. It is recommended to wait for the implementation of macro - policies. From an industrial perspective, methanol is not suitable for upward trading, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 and sell call options (MA2509C2) at 45 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can sell put options (MA2509P2) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 25 to reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The recent methanol price fluctuations are not industry - led, exceeding fundamental analysis, with intensified speculative sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, Iranian shipments are accelerating, with 610,000 tons shipped so far and an import forecast of around 1.25 million tons for July - August. Methanol coal - to - methanol profits remain high. The profit of methanol downstream is further compressed. It is not advisable to go long on methanol from an industrial perspective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will increase [5].