成材：情绪调整下短期波动加大

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: Short - term fluctuations increase [1][3] Group 3 - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 343.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. Among them, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year [2] - Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.49%, a month - on - month increase of 3.7 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10.98 percentage points. The average operating rate was 72.02%, a month - on - month increase of 6.94 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.76 percentage points [2] - The finished products pulled back yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils closed with bare - headed medium negative lines, making a large retracement of the gains since last Tuesday. Driven by a series of macro - level positive factors such as anti - involution and the Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Station, the black series had a large increase, with coking coal leading the rise and finished products following [2] - After the Dalian Commodity Exchange imposed trading limits on coking coal after the market on Friday, coking coal hit the daily limit on Monday, and the finished products also had a large decline. Currently, the fundamentals of steel are average, the weak demand situation remains unchanged, and prices still have room for adjustment due to the huge recent increase in related varieties. However, the macro - level sentiment has changed significantly, and there will still be fluctuations in prices [2] Group 4 - Later concerns: macro - level policies; supply - side production reduction; downstream demand [3]