铜周报：市场情绪转弱，铜价前景不佳-20250729

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has turned weak, and the outlook for copper prices is poor. The anti - involution speculation in the futures market has ended, and the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates this week is extremely low, with the US dollar rising continuously. The market remains weak, and non - ferrous metals have all declined. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the future [1][2]. Group 3: Market Performance Summary - Price Changes: Shanghai copper closed at 79,000, and the spot price was 79,270. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the spot premium dropped to 270 points. The spot basis premium dropped to 95 points, and spot trading was poor. LME spot premium narrowed slightly to a discount of - 54 dollars, indicating weak external spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8.05, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 270 points [1]. - Inventory Changes: US copper inventories increased significantly this week, London copper inventories rose, and Shanghai copper inventories decreased slightly [1]. - Exchange Rate and Premium: The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to 51.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. Group 4: Technical and Supply - Demand Analysis - Technical Analysis: London copper fluctuated slightly higher, trading around 9,800 dollars. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom and fell slightly, closing at 7,9000, with a weak technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious [2]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: During the off - season, the spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor. With the approaching implementation of US tariffs, the demand for London and Shanghai copper has decreased significantly [2].