国投期货综合晨报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The macro - positive situation and geopolitical factors support short - term oil price increases, while precious metals are expected to fluctuate due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Base metals, energy, chemical, and agricultural products show diversified trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and international trade negotiations [2][3] - The stock index market has a good capital sentiment, and the bond market shows signs of stabilization due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" market [46][47] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 2.96%. Favorable macro factors and geopolitical changes support short - term oil prices [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is in a downward trend. Fuel oil shows relative weakness compared to crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil with smaller fluctuations [20] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Overseas market decline due to export pressure, with the domestic market under pressure and maintaining a weak oscillation [22] Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to reduced risk - aversion demand. Key data releases such as the Fed meeting and US non - farm payrolls should be monitored this week [3] - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is waiting for US tariff details, and copper prices may decline to the MA60 moving average [4] - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The increase in ingot inventory and weak demand in the off - season put pressure on prices [5] - Zinc: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic, with supply increasing and consumption showing no significant improvement. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [8] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound. Wait for short - selling opportunities as the market may return to fundamentals [10] - Tin: Overnight tin prices fell. Long - term supply expectations may suppress prices, and high - level short positions above 270,000 yuan can be held [11] - Lead: Shanghai lead oscillates in a narrow range at a low level. Supply pressure slightly eases, and consumption is entering the peak season, but actual growth needs to be observed [9] - Silicon and Related Alloys: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. They are expected to maintain wide - range oscillations, and caution is needed when taking unilateral short positions [13][14] - Iron and Steel: Steel prices are affected by factors such as cost support, demand changes, and the "anti - involution" sentiment. They are under short - term pressure and show increased volatility [14] - Iron Ore: The iron ore market oscillates. Supply and demand show certain changes, and the impact of the "anti - involution" sentiment on the market is weakening [15] - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke and coking coal prices oscillate. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the market is affected by factors such as the "anti - involution" sentiment and production policies [16] Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Carbonate lithium oscillated and hit the daily limit down. The market is affected by factors such as production resumption rumors, inventory changes, and technical indicators. Short - sellers should manage their positions [12] - Urea: Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and exports are progressing. The short - term market is expected to operate within a range [23] - Methanol: Methanol futures fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The market is expected to oscillate weakly if it returns to the fundamental trading logic [24] - Pure Benzene: Pure benzene prices adjusted. There are expectations of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. Month - spread band trading is recommended [25] - Styrene: Styrene futures faced resistance at the half - year line. Supply pressure is high, and demand is stable [26] - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The market lacks obvious news guidance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is limited [27] - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC prices fell from a high level. Supply decreased, and demand is weak in the short term but may improve in the long - term. Caustic soda is expected to face pressure at a high level [28] - PX and PTA: PX and PTA prices fell back. PTA continues to accumulate inventory, and the processing margin needs to be repaired with the recovery of downstream demand [29] - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol prices fell due to sentiment. Supply may increase, and demand is stable, showing low - level fluctuations [30] - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, while bottle - chip is restricted by over - capacity [31] - Glass: Glass prices fell. The market is expected to return to reality trading, and long - term demand is poor [32] - Natural Rubber and Related Products: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and demand is weakening. The strategy is to wait and see for natural rubber and bullish for butadiene rubber [33] - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices fell. Supply is high, and the photovoltaic industry is reducing production. It is a long - term short - selling product [34] Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Sino - US trade negotiations are the focus. New - season US soybeans may have a good harvest if the weather is favorable. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate before the tariff issue is clear [34] - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and weather. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the short - term strong - oil and weak - meal situation [35] - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as Sino - Canadian relations and market fundamentals [36] - Soybean No. 1: Domestic soybeans decreased in position and adjusted. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, policy, and US weather [37] - Corn: Corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as auction supply and US corn prices [38] - Hogs: Hog futures are expected to be weak in the later stage. The supply in the second half of the year is sufficient, and the industry is recommended to hedge on rallies [39] - Eggs: Egg prices are under pressure. The short - term focus is on whether the spot price can rebound seasonally, and long - term positions can be considered in the far - month contracts [40] - Cotton: Zheng cotton maintains a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the situation of US and Brazilian cotton [41] - Sugar: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian production expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [42] - Apples: Apple prices oscillate. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate, and the current operation is to wait and see [43] - Timber: Timber prices are expected to rise. Demand is improving, and inventory is low [44] - Pulp: Pulp prices fell. The market is affected by the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment and weak fundamentals, showing low - level oscillations [45] Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market shows differentiation. The stock index futures market is affected by factors such as international trade negotiations and the Fed's decision. The technology - growth sector can be increased in allocation [46] - Treasury Bond: Treasury bond futures rose. The "anti - involution" market cooling brings signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to important events and market entry opportunities [47]