红海局势再度紧张,欧美达成贸易协议,商品高位回撤较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-29 05:10
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is highly difficult. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe the market [2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to take partial profit for the long positions in the 2510 contract below 1300 (which has made a profit of over 300 points), and go short in the EC2512 contract with a light position and pay attention to the subsequent market trend. In the context of international situation turmoil, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations, so it is suggested to wait and see or try with a light position. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profit when the contracts reach a high level and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before making further decisions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Price Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route on July 25 was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [1]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Trump continues to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hits the re - export trade. Some shipping companies have announced price increases. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Currently, the spot market price range is set, with a small price increase to test the market, and the futures market has a small rebound [2]. - On July 28, the main contract 2510 closed at 1502.8, down 1.84%, with a trading volume of 56,000 lots and an open interest of 50,700 lots, an increase of 717 lots from the previous day [2]. - The situation in the Red Sea has escalated again, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. Coupled with the recent stabilization of spot freight rates, the market is in a fierce long - short game, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3.3 Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Houthi armed forces will upgrade their maritime blockade operations and launch the fourth - stage maritime blockade. They will attack all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports, regardless of the location and nationality of the ships [4]. - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by 600 billion US dollars, purchase US military equipment, and buy 150 billion US dollars of US energy products [4]. - In June, the preliminary value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2); the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [1]. - In June, the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - In June, the preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [1]. 3.4 Trading Rules Adjustment - The daily limit and lower limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [3]. - The margin of the company for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [3].