国泰君安期货所长早读-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show various trends, including wide - range oscillations, declines, and rebounds [6][11][12]. - For specific commodities, glass may experience a resistive decline, and the adjustment may not end; carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual reduction and suspension of production in mines; gold is oscillating and falling, while silver is breaking through and rising, etc. [6][8][9][12] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 International and Domestic News - Sino - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm, Sweden. China hopes to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and cooperation [6]. - China introduced a child - rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old [18]. - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia, causing crude oil prices to rise nearly 3% during intraday trading [19]. - The US Treasury's borrowing forecast for the third quarter exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak [21]. - Chile expects to obtain a tariff exemption from Trump, causing copper prices in New York to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [21]. - Tesla placed a $16.5 billion chip order with Samsung [21]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is oscillating and falling, and silver is breaking through and rising. The trend intensity of gold is - 1, and that of silver is 0 [12][15][20]. - Copper: The rise of the US dollar exerts pressure on copper prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][22][24]. - Zinc: Zinc is oscillating and weakening, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][25][27]. - Lead: The price of lead is oscillating due to the lack of a clear driving force, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][28][29]. - Tin: Tin is oscillating within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][31][34]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum is oscillating at a high level, alumina's sentiment is declining, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][35][37]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The direction of nickel is determined by macro - expectations, and its fundamentals limit its elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and its real - world situation needs to be repaired. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][38][42]. - Carbonated Lithium: Carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the reduction and suspension of production in Jiangxi mines. The trend intensity is 0 [9][12][43]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon should pay attention to today's sentiment changes, and polysilicon should focus on today's market information. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [12][47][50]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [12][51]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by the sector's market resonance and are oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][54][57]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in a weak oscillation due to the game between funds and reality. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [12][58][60]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation as sentiment is realized. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [12][61][64]. - Steam Coal: The daily consumption of steam coal is recovering, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [12][66][69]. 3.2.3 Others - Glass: Short - term short - chasing for glass needs to be cautious, and the decline adjustment has not ended. It may experience a resistive decline in the later stage [6][8]. - Log: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [70].