贵金属数据日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the gold price is under pressure due to the US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July. However, due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and wait and see for silver [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, London gold spot dropped 0.5% to $3340.32/ounce, London silver spot dropped 1.9% to $38.33/ounce, COMEX gold dropped 0.6% to $3340.10/ounce, COMEX silver dropped 2.2% to $38.45/ounce, AU2508 dropped 0.3% to 772 yuan/gram, AG2508 dropped 1.9% to 9190 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) dropped 0.3% to 771.11 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) dropped 1.9% to 9185 yuan/kg [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed by - 41.8%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed by 66.7%, the gold cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by 84.6%, the silver cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by - 1.2%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, the CONEX gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, AU2512 - 2508 changed by 7.8%, and AG2512 - 2508 changed by - 4.3% [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 957.09 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased 0.15% to 15230.42858 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions increased 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 30258 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 1.77% to 1208269 kg. On July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.39% to 37762394 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.51% to 500320749 ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate increased 0.07% to 7.15, the US dollar index increased 0.19% to 97.67, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.91%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.68% to 4.40%, the VIX decreased 2.99% to 14.93, the S&P 500 increased 0.40% to 6388.64, and MANEX decreased 1.65% to 65.07 [3]. 3.6 Market Analysis - Short - term: The US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing the precious metal prices. But due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term [3]. - Long - term: There is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3].