聚酯数据日报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The commodity sentiment has warmed up, the domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, and the profit margins of alkyl transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The market port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening of the basis. The basis of PTA has risen from 0 to 30. The maintenance of the Northeast PX plant has been postponed, and the Zhejiang reforming unit has also been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market. For ethylene glycol, coal prices have rebounded, ethylene glycol prices have recovered, the macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the improvement of the commodity sentiment. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially Saudi Arabian plants, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and boost the price of ethylene glycol. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid rise in polyester prices, the profits of downstream weaving have shrunk, and the terminal load has declined significantly, which has a certain negative impact on the market. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 512.9 yuan/barrel on July 25, 2025, to 505.9 yuan/barrel on July 28, 2025, a decrease of 7 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA: PTA - SC decreased from 1208.7 yuan/ton to 1135.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.13 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3243 to 1.3089, a decrease of 0.0154; PTA主力期价 dropped from 4936 yuan/ton to 4812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4895 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased by 15.9 yuan/ton to 208.5 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 3.1 yuan/ton to 220.5 yuan/ton; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 30740 [2]. - MEG: MEG主力期价 dropped from 4545 yuan/ton to 4436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from - 83.21 yuan/ton to - 92.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.2 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 dropped from 4582 yuan/ton to 4499 yuan/ton, a decrease of 83 yuan/ton [2]. - PX: CFR中国PX dropped from 874 to 851, a decrease of 23; the PX - naphtha spread dropped from 294 to 271, a decrease of 23 [2]. - Polyester Products: POY现金流 increased from - 260 to - 146, an increase of 114; POY150D/48F increased from 6710 to 6715, an increase of 5; FDY现金流 increased from - 470 to - 351, an increase of 119; FDY150D/96F increased from 7000 to 7010, an increase of 10; DTY现金流 increased from - 275 to - 151, an increase of 124; DTY150D/48F increased from 7895 to 7910, an increase of 15; 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6705 to 6675, a decrease of 30; 涤短现金流 increased from 85 to 164, an increase of 79; 半光切片 decreased from 5925 to 5875, a decrease of 50; 切片现金流 increased from - 145 to - 86, an increase of 59 [2]. - Industry Operating Rates: PX开工率 remained at 77.29%; PTA开工率 remained at 80.59%; MEG开工率 remained at 57.74%; polyester load decreased from 87.01% to 86.66%, a decrease of 0.35% [2]. - Production and Sales Rates: The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 29% to 30%, an increase of 1%; the staple - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 78% to 48%, a decrease of 30%; the slice production and sales rate decreased from 130% to 83%, a decrease of 47% [2]. 3.2 Device Maintenance - An East - China 1.5 - million - ton PTA device has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. An East - China 3 - million - ton PTA device has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].