新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货市场暂时坚挺-20250729

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: SHFE Aluminum Positive Spread, Long AD11 and Short AL11 [6] Group 2: Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, last week's lack of upward price elasticity was due to the consumption off - season and inventory accumulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan has no impact on the supply side, but policy support for the consumption side should be watched. There is a risk of a squeeze in the 08 contract, and the long - term logic is supply constraints and expected consumption growth [3]. - For alumina, the spot market shows that the actual ex - factory price has declined despite higher tender prices. Supply is increasing due to profit incentives, with continued inventory accumulation. There are issues with warehouse receipts, and the speed of registering warehouse receipts needs further observation [3][4]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the consumption off - season, with prices following aluminum. Tight scrap and primary aluminum supply support prices, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot and Futures - Aluminum spot: On July 28, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,470 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum futures: On July 28, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,765 yuan/ton, closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (-0.65%) from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 188,322 lots, up 44,751 lots, and positions were 285,172 lots, down 16,798 lots [1]. - Aluminum inventory: As of July 28, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 533,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 454,275 tons, up 3,450 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina Spot and Futures - Alumina spot: On July 28, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3,240 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 3,220 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,300 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. - Alumina futures: On July 28, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 3,404 yuan/ton, closed at 3,243 yuan/ton, down 217 yuan/ton (-6.27%) from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 1,003,218 lots, up 98,197 lots, and positions were 170,310 lots, down 22,776 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - Aluminum alloy price: On July 28, 2025, the Baotai civil primary aluminum purchase price was 15,100 yuan/ton, the mechanical primary aluminum purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quote was 19,600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day. The ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 960 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 43,200 tons, up 6,000 tons week - on - week; the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons, down 300 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 106,800 tons, up 5,700 tons week - on - week [2].