锌锭社会库存持续增加

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and the demand in the spot market has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing, leading to an expected increase in supply. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a continuous increase in social inventories. After the market sentiment fades, zinc prices are expected to return to the fundamental logic, and due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is - 1.96 dollars/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 120 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and its premium rose 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell 160 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined 120 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium increased 35 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures: On July 28, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22905 yuan/ton, closed at 22645 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193107 lots, an increase of 41021 lots, and the position was 124461 lots, a decrease of 4767 lots. The highest price reached 22965 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22575 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: As of July 28, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 103700 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 115500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Cost: The new - month tender price of domestic ore has not been determined, while the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching 85 dollars/ton, and the smelting profit is increasing. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for ore procurement, so the TC is expected to continue rising [4]. - Supply and Demand: The downstream consumption shows some resilience, but the high growth on the supply side leads to an increase in social inventories, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Considering the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5]. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5].