农产品日报：需求持续疲软，猪价偏弱震荡-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, the future average weight of slaughtered pigs may further decline, and the slaughter volume is likely to increase. The short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to policy - side factors [2] - In the egg market, as it enters the seasonal consumption peak, the willingness of breeding enterprises to cull laying hens decreases, and the culling volume may further decline. With cost support and increased demand after the plum - rain season in the South, the loss situation of laying hens is expected to improve [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 14,125 yuan/ton, a change of - 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.81% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.17 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 28: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.62, down 0.11 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.51 yuan/kg, down 1.7% from last Friday; beef was 64.23 yuan/kg, up 0.9%; mutton was 59.40 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; eggs were 7.65 yuan/kg, up 1.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.44 yuan/kg, up 0.6% [1] Market Analysis - The future average weight of slaughtered pigs may decline, and the slaughter volume may increase. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has not widened, and secondary fattening has little chance to enter the market. The short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to policy factors [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,576 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 52 yuan from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.43% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.98 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.18 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.20 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.93 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.25 yuan [3] - On July 28, the national production - link inventory was 0.6 days, an increase of 0.04 days from yesterday, an increase of 7.14%. The circulation - link inventory was 0.92 days, an increase of 0.07 days from yesterday, an increase of 8.24% [3] Market Analysis - Supply: As the egg price has been rising this week and it is entering the seasonal consumption peak, the willingness of breeding enterprises to cull laying hens decreases, and the culling volume and culling age have changed. The future culling volume may further decline [4] - Demand: Traders are actively purchasing, and the inventory at the breeding end has decreased significantly. With cost support and increased demand after the plum - rain season in the South, the loss situation of laying hens is expected to improve [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]