现货价格小幅下调，豆粕偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean粕 and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The bean粕 futures price showed a weak oscillation. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. There are obvious macro - factor disturbances, and the trade relationship is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of bean粕 remains loose due to high soybean arrivals and rising inventory. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2]. - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean粕 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕 2509 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, with a change of - 31 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) compared to the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed粕 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.56%) [1]. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean粕 spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed粕 spot price in Fujian was 2610 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Market News: Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season. Argentina's president announced a reduction in most agricultural product export tariffs, with the soybean export tariff dropping from 33% to 26%, and the bean粕 and soybean oil tariff from 31% to 24.5% [1] Market Analysis - The bean粕 futures price was weak. Favorable US weather, improving trade relations, high domestic soybean arrivals, and rising inventory contribute to a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.35%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.68%) [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Market News: As of July 19, the harvesting progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 55.5%. Brazil's 2024/25 corn production is expected to reach 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase. The EU's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 60.13 million tons, up 0.9% year - on - year; imports are expected to be 18.33 million tons, down 7.0% year - on - year; exports are expected to be 4.23 million tons, up 69.2% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. On the supply side, traders' shipments stabilized after negative - factor digestion. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises declined, and feed enterprises had sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions weakened, but market fluctuations may occur due to new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]