甲醇日报：焦煤价格回落带动煤化工回调-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapid decline in coking coal prices on Monday led to a drop in methanol, a coal - chemical product, and price volatility has increased. Overseas methanol production remains at a high level, and there is still significant pressure from incoming shipments. The maintenance plan for MTO units has not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress. It is still a period of slight inventory accumulation. [2] - In the inland region, coal - based methanol plants have undergone centralized maintenance but will gradually resume operation in early August. In the traditional downstream sector, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - peak period, while MTBE and acetic acid production maintain a certain level of resilience. Inland demand remains strong, and inland methanol factory inventories have decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market is stronger than the port market. [2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). [6][21][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spreads (such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China). [25][26][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants). [35][36][38] IV. Regional Price Spreads It shows the price spreads between different regions, such as the spread between northern Shandong and the northwest, the spread between East China and Inner Mongolia, and the spreads between Taicang and other regions. [40][48][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits The report includes figures on the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [52][56][60] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see. [3] - Inter - period: Go for reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high. [3] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when the spread is high. [3]