蛋白数据日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply: US soybean good rate dropped to 68% this week, with dry conditions expected in Kansas in the next two weeks, potentially unfavorable for soybean growth, but normal weather in other areas is overall beneficial. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, domestic soybean crushing in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September; ship arrivals are slow from October to January [7]. - Demand: Short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand, but policies aim to control pig inventory and weight. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, with high提货 volume. Wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recent soybean meal transactions are normal [8]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. - Investment advice: Buy on dips and pay attention to Sino - US policies. Overall, domestic near - month ship purchases are basically covered, soybean meal is in an inventory accumulation cycle, the near - month basis is still expected to be under pressure, M09 is expected to fluctuate, and M01 is recommended based on the expectation of rising import costs [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Spread Data - Base Difference of Soybean Meal Futures and Spot: On July 28, the base difference of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 10 with a decrease of 9; in Tianjin, it was - 70 with an increase of 11; in other regions, the base differences and their changes are also provided in detail [6]. - Spread Data: The differences between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including spot spread in Guangdong and main contract spread, as well as the differences between different contract months (such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1) are presented, along with their values and changes [7]. Supply - related Data - Soybean Import and Processing: The CNF premium of imported soybeans from Brazil, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the disk crushing profit, and the import soybean disk gross profit are shown. The disk crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is 265 yuan/ton with no change [7]. - Inventory Data: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil - mill soybean inventory, national major oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises are provided, showing their historical trends [7]. - Soybean Pressing and Operation Rate: Data on the national major oil - mill soybean pressing volume and operation rate are presented, showing their historical trends [7].