FICC日报：运价顶部已现，关注马士基报价-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes [1][3] - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations and a game around delivery, with the freight rate top probably reached [3] - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with large expected fluctuations [4] - The December contract follows the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation [4] - The strategy includes a fluctuating main contract for the unilateral approach, and for the arbitrage, go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes from different shipping companies show some price adjustments. For example, Maersk's prices decreased from Week 31 to Week 32, and some companies' August upper - half - month quotes changed [1] - Geopolitical situation in the Gaza region may impact shipping, with ongoing military actions and discussions about a possible cease - fire [1] 2. Shipping Capacity - China - Europe base port's August monthly average weekly shipping capacity is 303,200 TEU, and September's is 289,800 TEU. There are changes in weekly capacity and additional vessels in Maersk [2] - In August, there were 4 empty sailings from the OA alliance and 5 TBNs; in September, there are 3 TBNs [2] 3. Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in high - level fluctuations. The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and the final settlement price may be around 2200 points [3] - October contract: It is a seasonal contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the October price is 20% - 30% lower than August's [4] - December contract: The freight rate is usually higher in December due to Western holidays and shipping companies' strategies. The risk is the resumption of the Suez Canal [4] 4. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 28, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 77,192 lots, and the daily trading volume is 70,845 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices [5] - SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes [5] 5. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates [6] - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] 6. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU have been delivered [5] - Details of ships in different capacity ranges (12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU) delivered are provided [5]