原油日报：特朗普威胁缩短对俄制裁观察期-20250729

Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.55 to settle at $66.71 per barrel, a gain of 2.38%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.60 to settle at $70.04 per barrel, a gain of 2.34%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 2.06% at 516 yuan per barrel [1] - After the EU-US trade deal was announced by US President Trump, European Commission President von der Leyen explained some decisions in the trade negotiation. The EU is still overly dependent on Russian LNG, so importing more affordable LNG from the US is welcome. The tariff for the automotive industry in the agreement is set at 15%, and the same tariff rate will be implemented in the pharmaceutical industry. No decision has been made on the spirits sector, and details of the trade agreement framework will be announced in the coming weeks [1] - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen will escalate their maritime blockade and launch the fourth - stage blockade, targeting all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports regardless of location and nationality [1] - Russia has imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports by oil companies until August 31 to stabilize the domestic market during peak demand and ensure sufficient fuel supply for farmers [1] - An attack on the judicial institution in Zahedan, Iran, has caused 6 deaths and 20 injuries. The terrorist organization "Justice Army" claimed responsibility, and three attackers have been killed [1] - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting ended, reaffirming the importance of full compliance with quotas, without policy recommendations. The next JMMC meeting will be held on October 1 [1] Investment Logic - Trump threatened to shorten the 50 - day cease - fire observation period between Russia and Ukraine. Russia must respond within 10 - 12 days, or countries purchasing Russian oil will face 100% tariff sanctions, which threatens oil imports of China, India, and Turkey. However, there is uncertainty about whether Trump will actually impose sanctions, and it may become a short - term market speculation topic [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a medium - term short position is recommended [3]