焦煤价格回落，带动EG回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unmentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The decline in coking coal prices led to a callback in EG prices. The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. - MEG inventory in the main ports of East China decreased slightly last week. The actual arrivals at the main ports were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value. This week, the planned arrivals are 156,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is at a relatively high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of weakening fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, focusing on macro - sentiment changes, especially the Sino - US tariff policy changes during July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4,436 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton (-2.40%) from the previous trading day, and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4,499 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.75%). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 58 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$34/ton (up $4/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 167 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) [1]. International Spread - Unmentioned in the text about specific data, only a figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" is provided [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price - increase effect, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, significantly alleviating the filament inventory pressure. The polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 521,000 tons (down 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data, it was 475,000 tons (down 19,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the weekly port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 156,000 tons [1].