2025年7月房地产市场跟踪：“十年再启新章”，从增量扩张到存量提质，行业加快构建发展新模式

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting a stabilization and recovery phase following recent policy adjustments and market conditions [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The central government has emphasized the importance of urban development and housing quality, marking a shift from rapid expansion to enhancing existing stock, which is expected to create sustained demand in the real estate sector [2][4][6]. - The recent urban work conference highlighted seven key tasks aimed at optimizing urban systems and promoting high-quality urban development, which will benefit the real estate market [3][4][6]. - The report notes a significant increase in urbanization rates, with the urbanization rate rising from 57.3% in 2015 to 67% in 2024, indicating a growing population in urban areas that will support housing demand [3][4]. Market Tracking - In June 2025, new and second-hand housing prices showed a narrowing decline year-on-year, with new housing sales volume decreasing by 6.55% and sales value by 11.49% compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month increase [7][8]. - The land market has shown a trend of quality over quantity, with a decrease in land area sold but an increase in transaction value, indicating a preference for premium land parcels [8][9]. - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market is experiencing a "price for volume" strategy, with a notable increase in listings, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, reflecting supply pressures [9]. Urban Renewal Initiatives - The report outlines that over 60,000 urban renewal projects were implemented in 2024, with an investment of approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, indicating a strong push towards urban revitalization [5][6]. - Policies supporting urban renewal are expected to accelerate, with specific financial allocations for pilot cities, enhancing the role of urban renewal in stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand [5][6]. Financial Market Dynamics - The bond market for real estate companies has shifted to a net inflow, with increased trading activity in domestic bonds, particularly among state-owned enterprises, reflecting improved market confidence [11]. - The report notes that the financing environment for real estate companies is becoming more favorable, with expectations of strong repayment capabilities supported by shareholder backing [11]. Conclusion - The real estate industry is transitioning towards a new development model focused on quality improvement and urban renewal, supported by favorable government policies and a growing urban population, which is expected to stabilize and eventually enhance market conditions [6][7].