集运日报：红海局势再度紧张，欧美达成贸易协议，商品高位回撤较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250729

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the tense Red Sea situation, the trade agreement between Europe and the United States, and significant retracement of commodity prices at high levels, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - The market is in a state of intense long - short game, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - Container Freight Indexes on July 28: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [1]. - Container Freight Indexes on July 25: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [1]. - Other Indexes on July 25: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [1]. - CCFI Indexes on July 25: The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [1]. - Futures Market on July 28: The closing price of the 2510 main contract was 1502.8, with a decline of 1.84%, a trading volume of 56,000 lots, and an open interest of 50,700 lots, an increase of 717 lots from the previous day [2]. Economic Data - Eurozone in June: The manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous value 49.4); the services PMI preliminary value was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous value 49.7); the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous value 50.2); the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous value - 8.1) [1]. - China in June: The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - US in June: The Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the services PMI preliminary value was 53.1 (lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a 2 - month low); the composite PMI preliminary value was 52.8 (lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a 2 - month low) [1]. Market Events - The Houthi armed forces will upgrade their maritime blockade operations and launch the fourth - stage maritime blockade, targeting all ships of shipping companies cooperating with Israeli ports [4]. - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to partially take profits on the long positions established below 1300 in the 2510 contract (with a profit margin of over 300 points). For the EC2512 contract, it is recommended to take a light short position and monitor the subsequent market trend [3]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is dominated by a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [3]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily price limits for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 18% [3]. - The margin requirements for contracts from 2508 to 2606 are adjusted to 28% [3]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [3].