下游维持刚需采购，铅价震荡格局不改

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently experiencing a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector are unlikely to drop significantly. Therefore, the price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 23.42 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16775 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10525 yuan/ton [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the day, the Shanghai lead futures showed a weak and volatile trend. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16960 yuan/ton and closed at 16915 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 72526 lots, a change of 25763 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest for the whole trading day was 70546 lots, a change of - 2781 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17085 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16985 yuan/ton and closed at 16945 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [1] Inventory - On July 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 7.2 million tons, a change of 0.03 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 28, the LME lead inventory was 263650 tons, a change of - 3050 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]