Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Previously, the urea market was affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity, with positive sentiment. However, the market sentiment declined, and the macro - atmosphere changed, leading to a decline in the urea futures market. - Urea production is at a high level, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is in the off - season. There are no bright spots on the demand side. - The company's inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Urea exports are restricted, and the overall port inventory has changed little [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 28, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1738 yuan/ton (- 65). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1790 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (- 10). The Shandong basis was 42 yuan/ton (+ 55), the Henan basis was 52 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the Jiangsu basis was 62 yuan/ton (+ 55) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 28, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.59% (0.08%). Newly added urea production devices are gradually put into operation, and the output remains high [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of July 28, 2025, the urea production profit was 250 yuan/ton (- 10). The overall operating rate of urea is at a high level [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of July 28, 2025, the urea export profit was 1037 yuan/ton (- 46). Urea exports are restricted, and the second batch of export quotas is progressing slowly [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 28, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58% (+ 1.03%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.20% (+ 0.96%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (- 0.12). Agricultural demand is ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production has been slow to increase [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 85.88 million tons (- 3.67), and the port sample inventory was 54.30 million tons (+ 0.20). The enterprise inventory is still in the destocking cycle, but the destocking rate has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [1][2]
尿素日报：宏观氛围转向，尿素盘面下跌-20250729
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-29 05:40