工业硅触及跌停，短期需关注风险管控

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon in the short - term with interval operation; no specific rating for industrial silicon but mentioned reasonable valuation and subsequent wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Inter - period: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Inter - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][7] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, on July 28, 2025, the futures price hit the daily limit down. The fundamental situation is average, with some resumption of production on the supply side and a decrease in the start - up of organosilicon on the consumption side due to an accident at a large factory. The price followed the overall commodity sentiment decline. The current valuation is relatively reasonable, and the subsequent disk will oscillate widely [1][2] - For polysilicon, on July 28, 2025, the futures main contract fluctuated widely. It is mainly affected by policy disturbances. The anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry is still in progress. The short - term anti - involution policy has cooled the sentiment, leading to a short - term callback in the futures disk. The full cost including tax on the disk may be the main support level. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions on dips [4][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of - 775 yuan/ton (- 8.00%) compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. The position of the main contract was 279068 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50113 lots, a change of 403 lots compared with the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The prices in most regions decreased, while those in Sichuan and 97 - silicon remained stable. The price of organosilicon DMC remained unchanged, the market supply shrank, and manufacturers' willingness to support prices increased significantly [1] Polysilicon - On July 28, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 48000 yuan/ton and closed at 49405 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 5.84% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136295 lots (155168 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 581460 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon and silicon wafers both increased [4] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers of different specifications had small fluctuations. The prices of battery cells of different types and components of different specifications remained basically stable [4][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are average. The supply side has some resumption of production, and the consumption side has a decrease in the start - up of organosilicon. The price follows the overall commodity sentiment decline. The subsequent disk will oscillate widely [2] Polysilicon - Short - term interval operation. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions on dips. Pay attention to the progress and actual implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices [7]