周初EB港口累库延续，跨期价差进一步走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector in the early stage was the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such plants accounted for 16% in pure benzene and 6% in styrene, especially in BZ. However, with the decline in coking coal prices, the atmosphere in the chemical sector weakened, leading to price corrections in BZ and EB. - At the beginning of the week, BZ port inventory continued to consolidate without further accumulation. The short - term downstream demand for BZ was acceptable, but port inventory pressure and the pressure of shipments from South Korea to China still existed. - For styrene, port inventory continued to rise at the beginning of the week, with the inventory accumulation rate unchanged. The EB port basis remained weak, and the inter - period spread continued to weaken. The domestic EB operation rate was still at a relatively high level. The operation rates of the three major hard plastics increased, the PS inventory pressure continued to ease, while ABS still had inventory pressure. The fundamentals of styrene were weaker than those of pure benzene [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene was - 221 yuan/ton (+71), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 70 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene was 12 yuan/ton (+59 yuan/ton), and the EB port basis remained weak with the inter - period spread continuing to weaken [2][3]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee was 185 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee was 170 dollars/ton (+9 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread was 106.0 dollars/ton (-13.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - acetone, and adipic acid changed, with caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+165), phenol - acetone at - 667 yuan/ton (+25), and adipic acid at - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit was - 168 yuan/ton (-122 yuan/ton) and was expected to gradually compress. The production profits of downstream hard plastics EPS, PS, and ABS increased, with EPS at 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton), PS at - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton), and ABS at 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton) [2]. 3. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory was 17.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operation rate information was not clearly summarized in the given text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,300 tons), the East China commercial inventory was 67,500 tons (+11,300 tons), and the operation rate was 78.8% (+0.5%) [2]. 4. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The operation rate was 55.21% (+2.02%), and the production profit was 254 yuan/ton (+168 yuan/ton). - PS: The operation rate was 51.60% (+1.00%), and the production profit was - 46 yuan/ton (+118 yuan/ton). - ABS: The operation rate was 66.82% (+0.92%), and the production profit was 273 yuan/ton (+141 yuan/ton). The downstream operation was at a seasonal low [2]. 5. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operation rate was 90.90% (-0.83%), and the production profit was - 1830 yuan/ton (+165). - Phenol: The operation rate was 78.00% (-3.00%), and the production profit of phenol - acetone was - 667 yuan/ton (+25). - Aniline: The operation rate was 73.66% (+0.77%), and the production profit was - 113 yuan/ton (-16). - Adipic acid: The operation rate was 64.80% (+0.00%), and the production profit was - 1427 yuan/ton (+109) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both pure benzene and styrene. - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods and distant - end BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high; conduct reverse arbitrage for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread. - Cross - variety: Short the EB - BZ spread when the spread is high [4].