供应结构宽松，油脂承压震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production, declining export data, and growing pressure on inventory accumulation, coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas and the gradual realization of high - yield expectations, the supply pressure is significant, causing the oils to face downward pressure and oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8946.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8120.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.00 yuan or - 0.29%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9406.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 51.00 yuan or - 0.54% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8920.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan or - 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 26.00, a change of - 50.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton or - 0.36%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 110.00, a change of - 6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9500.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan or - 0.63%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 94.00, a change of - 9.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Palm oil: From July 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 was 684308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 9.55 million tons, an increase of 0.30 million tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 10.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week [2] - Soybean oil: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 108.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week [2] - Import prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1183 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 583 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 573 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (August shipment) was 452 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 471 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 224 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (August shipment) was 197 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 262 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]