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市场短期矛盾有限,关注高硫结构企稳信号
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-29 05:38

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The short-term contradiction in the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the stabilization signal of the high-sulfur structure. The crude oil price maintains an oscillating trend, with a strengthening sign at night, but it has limited guidance on the short-term direction of fuel oil. The FU and LU markets oscillate narrowly, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently, with continuous adjustment of the market structure, a significant decline in crack spreads from high levels, relatively abundant supply at the spot end, and high inventory levels. The supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the market is expected to get some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely subsided in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently, with an increase in Brazilian tanker arrivals and the resumption of Kuwaiti exports, but the overall supply increase is limited. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.9% at 2,869 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,545 yuan/ton [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, recent shipments from Russia and Iran have increased, demand lacks highlights except for power plant seasonal procurement, and refinery demand shows no sign of large-scale improvement. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian tanker arrivals have increased and Kuwaiti exports have resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited, and there is no obvious contradiction in the Asia-Pacific spot market. The remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in shipping will suppress the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting FU crack spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately liquidated for profit [3] - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually liquidated for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]