供需矛盾累积,关注天气扰动
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-29 05:40
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [2][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as the supply outlook of international major producers, trade policy uncertainty, China's demand - structure adjustment, and high domestic inventory pressure. Future attention should be paid to the weather in major producing areas, trade - negotiation policies, and domestic inventory digestion [1] - The peanut market has limited and quality - differentiated sources of goods, with strong selling pressure from holders but weak downstream purchasing. The new - season planting area has increased, and future focus is on the impact of rainfall on new - season yields and demand changes [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 71.00 yuan/ton (- 1.68%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible - bean spot basis was A09 + 147, a change of + 71 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices remained stable [1] Strategy - Neutral [2] Risk - None [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8142.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 4.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.05%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8620.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 58.00, a change of - 4.00 (- 6.45%) from the previous day. Domestic peanut spot prices were slightly weaker, and most产区 inventories were low [2] Strategy - Neutral [4] Risk - Weak demand [4]