中原期货晨会纪要-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest market data of various commodities, macro - economic indicators, and provides analysis and outlooks for different sectors including agriculture, energy chemicals, industrial metals, and option finance. It also mentions significant macro - events and their potential impacts on the market [2][6][11] - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends. For example, peanuts may have a short - term strong - side shock but still face a downward trend, while sugar may break through the upper limit and open up an upward space [11] - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of some products such as urea and soda ash are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market supply - demand changes [12][14] - In the industrial metal sector, copper and aluminum prices are affected by trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile [16][17] - In the option finance sector, the A - share market shows an upward trend, and investors should pay attention to market events and choose appropriate investment strategies [20][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro Indicators: The Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.143%, the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.333%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.018%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.684%. The SHIBOR overnight rate decreased by 3.487%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.026%. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2] - International Futures Contracts: COMEX gold decreased by 0.734%, LME copper decreased by 0.342%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 2.935% [2] - Domestic Futures Contracts: Gold decreased by 0.509%, copper increased by 0.013%, and aluminum increased by 0.218%. In the chemical sector, coking coal decreased by 2.135%, and asphalt increased by 1.345%. In the agricultural products sector, yellow soybean No.1 decreased by 0.313%, and soybean oil increased by 0.369% [2][4] 3.2 Macro - economic News - Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm to promote the development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6] - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year [6] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized rural development, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed key work for the second half of the year, including promoting consumption and new industries [7] - Nine departments jointly issued a plan to rectify heavy - metal environmental safety hazards, and the paper industry issued an anti - involution initiative [7][8] - Trump mentioned possible tariff policies, and the international oil price rose due to the US - EU agreement and OPEC's production increase plan [8] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with a narrow - range shock. It may have a short - term strong - side shock but still has a downward trend [11] - Oils and Fats: The market has light trading volume and stable basis, and is expected to be volatile in the short term [11] - Sugar: The price has broken through the upper limit of the original shock range. If it breaks through the 5900 mark, it may open up an upward space. However, it is necessary to beware of the callback risk caused by imported sugar [11] - Corn: The price is at the upper limit of the shock range. If it breaks through the pressure level, it can be slightly long. Pay attention to feed demand substitution and policy regulation risks [11] - Cotton: Internationally, US cotton is affected by weather. Domestically, new cotton has a good growth with expected high yields. The price is affected by Sino - US trade relations and consumption seasons [13] - Pigs: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price maintains a shock after repairing the basis [13] - Eggs: The spot price has declined, and the futures price has a callback pressure. Short - term long positions should be avoided [13] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand in Shandong is stable, and the price is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the support at 2500 and the 9 - 11 spread [12] - Urea: The supply is in a phased reduction state, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be volatile and weak, with support at 1680 - 1720 [12][14] 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper prices may be restricted by trade optimism but face pressure if the US imposes a 50% tariff. Aluminum prices are expected to be high - level volatile due to supply - demand and policy factors [16] - Alumina: The futures - spot arbitrage window is open, and the price has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [16] - Steel Products: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak and volatile. Rebar should pay attention to the support at 3050 - 3150, and hot - rolled coils should pay attention to the support at 3200 - 3300 [17] - Ferroalloys: The prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are affected by coal raw materials and macro - policies. Investment should be cautious [19] - Coking Coal and Coke: The double - coking products are under pressure and are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support levels [19] - Lithium Carbonate: The price has fallen below the previous low and may test the 70,000 mark. Short positions can be held, but beware of over - fall rebounds [19] 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock Index: The A - share market shows an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 3600 points. Investors should pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [20][21] - Options: Trend investors should pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles to bet on increased volatility [23]