基础化工行业周报：“反内卷”政策持续发力，《价格法》修订规范市场价格秩序-20250729

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 4.03% in the week from July 21 to July 25, 2025, ranking 8th among all sectors, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points [4][22] - The report highlights a continued trend of differentiation in the chemical industry for 2025, recommending focus on sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The chemical sector's overall performance for the week was a 4.03% increase, ranking 8th among sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index by 2.76% [22] - The top three performing sub-sectors were construction materials (8.20%), coal (7.98%), and steel (7.67%) [22] 2. Key Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming implementation of quota policies for third-generation refrigerants, which are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and stable demand growth from markets like heat pumps and cold chains [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor industry and increasing demand for high-end electronic specialty gases [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is noted as a global shift, with a move towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to enhance the valuation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is experiencing accelerated domestic industrialization, with significant potential for domestic companies to break through supply bottlenecks [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply situation and increased prices [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand recovers, making it a resilient chemical product through economic cycles [12]