尿素早评：焦煤回落，尿素补跌-20250729

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The previous trading day saw UR decline, closing at 1738. After the coking coal limit - down on Monday, the bullish sentiment from anti - involution may be adjusted, leading to a compensatory decline in urea. Fundamentally, urea supply pressure remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Enterprise inventories continue to decline slightly, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may adjust repeatedly, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Directory Summary Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On July 28, it was 1758 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan or 2.71% from July 25 [1]. - UR05: On July 28, it was 1782 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 2.20% from July 25 [1]. - UR09: On July 28, it was 1738 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 3.61% from July 25 [1]. Spot Prices - Shandong: On July 28, it was 1780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.56% from July 25 [1]. - Shanxi: On July 28, it was 1660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.78% from July 25 [1]. - Henan: On July 28, it was 1790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.10% from July 25 [1]. - Hebei: On July 28, it was 1760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.12% from July 25 [1]. - Northeast: On July 28, it was 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Jiangsu: On July 28, it was 1800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.55% from July 25 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Basis (Shandong spot - UR): On July 28, it was - 2 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from July 25 [1]. - Spread (01 - 05): On July 28, it was - 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from July 25 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite price in Henan: On July 28, it was 1000 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: On July 28, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 9.76% from July 25 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: On July 28, it was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: On July 28, it was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: On July 28, it was 5007 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: On July 28, it was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1738 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1745 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 153,124 lots [1].