轻工行业2025年中期投资策略：布局个护等新消费成长股及优质出口链标的

Core Insights - The light industry sector has shown mixed performance in H1 2025, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure, while domestic personal care brands have gained market share from foreign brands due to product optimization and channel expansion [4] - The report recommends focusing on four main investment themes: 1) High-quality domestic personal care brands with upward market trends and optimized product structures; 2) Export companies with strong demand resilience and minimal tariff impact; 3) Undervalued cyclical assets in home furnishings and paper; 4) New consumption trends in AI glasses, new tobacco, pet products, and trendy toys [4] Sector Review - The light industry sector's overall revenue in Q1 2025 was 137.76 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, with net profit down 18.8% to 6.46 billion yuan [19] - The packaging and entertainment sectors performed well, with respective revenue growth rates of 9.4% and 2.4%, while the paper sector faced significant challenges with a revenue decline of 13% [19][22] - The report highlights that the home furnishings sector is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, which is expected to stabilize demand [4][19] Personal Care Sector - The personal care market is projected to grow, with the oral care segment expected to reach a market size of 50.51 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [40][41] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share in the sanitary napkin market, which is expected to reach 107.96 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 3.0% from 2025 to 2029 [54][55] - The report emphasizes the importance of product safety and quality in the sanitary napkin market, especially with the implementation of stricter national standards [64] Export Sector - The report notes that the export sector is experiencing a "rush to export" phenomenon due to fluctuating tariff policies, with companies that have strong manufacturing capabilities and minimal tariff impacts being favored [4][82] - The export of pet food and supplies, as well as non-woven fabrics, has shown resilience despite tariff disruptions, indicating strong demand in these categories [93]