动力煤港口价目标区间有望至700-750元/吨

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The target price range for thermal coal at ports is expected to reach 700-750 RMB/ton by the end of the year [4][24] - The report emphasizes the need to break the coal-electricity deflation spiral, with a focus on controlling production rates to avoid excessive competition [13][16][25] - The coal supply situation is being closely monitored, with a national coal production target of approximately 4.8 billion tons for 2025 [4][21] Summary by Sections Coal Mine Overproduction Inspection - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal production in eight key provinces to ensure that production does not exceed announced capacities [2][11] - The inspections will assess whether the coal mines' production plans for 2025 exceed the announced capacities by more than 10% [11][12] Inventory Changes - In 2024, the inventory of thermal coal is projected to increase by approximately 28.34 million tons based on major port, pit, and power plant inventories [3][22] - An alternative calculation method suggests that the total inventory increase could be around 92.69 million tons, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [3][21] Policy Toolbox and Adjustability - The report discusses the potential for policy adjustments to manage coal production and supply, highlighting the importance of maintaining a balance between production and market prices [4][25] - The report notes that while there may not be nationwide overproduction, certain regions may still face issues due to high capacity utilization [21][23] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market has begun to self-correct, with thermal coal prices rebounding after hitting a low in mid-June 2025 [21] - The coal industry's current dynamics suggest that controlling production rates is crucial to avoid a deflationary spiral in coal prices [16][25]