煤炭行业周报：煤炭现货继续上涨，“反内卷”力度等待确认-20250729

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market continues to rise, driven by supply constraints and high temperatures, with potential for rapid price increases if production cuts exceed expectations in key regions [4][11] - The dual focus on policy-driven price increases and strong demand from steel mills is expected to sustain upward pressure on coking coal prices [24][39] - The coal sector has significantly outperformed the market index, with a notable increase in stock prices across all listed coal companies [5][39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, with the coal sector outperforming the index, rising by 7.98% during the week [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3613.02 points, reflecting increased investor enthusiasm [5][39] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are on the rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with a potential for rapid price hikes if production cuts are enforced [10][11] - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in southern power plants increased to 218.0 million tons, reflecting strong demand [10][11] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have surged due to supply constraints and increased demand from steel mills, with a reported price increase of 50-55 yuan per ton for coking coal [23][24] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remains high at 83.48%, indicating robust production activity in the steel sector [28][39] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased, while shipping rates showed a slight decline, indicating a dynamic shipping environment [31] Industry News - Xinjiang's coal production reached a record high in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [35] - The establishment of a coal trading center in Xinjiang marks a significant development in the coal market [35]